Everything seems so bad
2020 is drawing to a close. There have been moments when it has felt like this year would never end. Trapped in our dwellings. Absorbing an unprecedented amount of negative news content. Sometimes watching the eye of the storm as it hovered over others (in Wuhan, then in Italy) and sometimes being the epicentre of global disaster, as in the last few weeks in the UK.
It is hard to take a neutral stance when reflecting on a year that has so badly deprived us of our cherished freedoms. 2020 was the year when the awkwardly named FOMO (fear of missing out) became irrelevant. Long term plans were cancelled, social interaction was advised against. One no longer had to worry about other people having a good time because no-one was.
Added to that has been the health cost. The ever-present specter of illness and endless numbers of COVID related deaths. We as a population have become increasingly numb to the daily figures of hundreds of souls no longer with us and the ever-rising infection graphs. Those lines only seem to go one way.
If this wasn’t a bleak picture already, who has been leading the UK through this period of great tragedy and uncertainty? Not a steady hand, not the needed methodical operator with a sense of urgency and gravitas. Instead we have a yellow haired chancer who revels in comedic buffoonery and trivializes the seriousness of the life-shattering problems the country faces. His callousness may ensure I get what I wished for when I found I was spoilt for choice in the supermarket.
The Light in the Middle of the Tunnel
As I write this hundreds of thousands of people in the UK have received the first dose of a two part vaccine against coronavirus. In the coming months, millions more people around the world will be vaccinated. This is something to be upbeat about. It represents the turning of a corner in controlling the spread of the disease. Also, the speed of the development and approval of the vaccine indicates a pace in the system of immunisation and distribution never seen before.
Whilst the pandemic has had many many negative manifestations, the increased international collaboration has been a positive outcome. It has shown that people across the world can work together on tasks of seemingly overwhelming scale. The delivering of results in the form of increased scientific breakthroughs is worth getting excited about. It gives us hope that we might tackle the challenges brought about by climate change in a similarly hasty fashion.
Back in the Ring
Indeed, 2020 put humanity back in the fight against civilization-ending climate change, as carbon emissions fell by 2.4 billion tons (or 7%). This represents the largest single year drop on record. The decline was most pronounced in the United States (-12%) Europe (-11%) and India (-9%).
This fall can be attributed to the reduced commercial activity resulting from the national lockdowns so it did come at a cost. What is important is that it shows us what can be done. We can reduce carbon emissions and accelerate the change to renewable/clean energy.
There are many challenges facing the environment as a whole. These include harmful human behaviours such as overfishing and deforestation but a transition to clean energy is one of the most pressing changes needed to save the Earth’s ecosystems.
Will the change be fast enough?
Writing for Vox in 2016, David Roberts outlined why the global move to clean energy may happen faster than previous energy transitions. A key take away is that previous large scale energy transitions were infrastructure problems. To bring about the required changes a few big players had to generate huge long term investments.
The currently happening transition to clean energy will instead take the form of a technology market, with distributed actors working on different projects across the globe, incentivized by the rocketing demand for green energy. This technology market will move much faster than the redevelopment of national and international infrastructures could.
Market Encouraged Change Backed Up By National Policy
2020 saw a prominent acceleration in national climate pledges. South Korea became the first Asian country to set a 2050 net zero emissions goal. It was followed by Japan, and then most importantly, China. China committed to being net zero by 2060 – a move which can be considered the single most important development in climate policy since the creation of the Paris Agreement.
Other countries are involved too. Argentina also committed to being net zero by 2050. Sweden, Finland and Austria brought their net zero dates forward. The UK pledged to reduce emissions by 68% in the next decade, while the EU set a goal of reducing emissions by 55% in the same time period. According to Global Citizen, countries responsible for around 42% of global carbon emissions now have ‘somewhat credible’ net-zero targets.
Individual behaviour
As we move into a post COVID-19 world (which I imagine will be at-least a year or so from now) it is conceivable that people will be able to reflect more on their own individual behaviours. They will hopefully see how micro-actions repeated millions of times translate into macro level events. It is these links that are important. The links between managing individual behaviour and the larger scale environmental changes have never been so crucial in determining the nature of our future.
2020 as a year has brought into stark relief what it means to have so many things previously taken for granted taken away. There was no reason people shouldn’t have taken for granted being able to see their loved ones. However, travelling so far around the world for little cost is now coming to be seen as the luxury that it is. International travel is going to take a long time to return to the levels of 2019.
Other notable changes in individual behaviour may help the planet too. The dramatic increase in the amount of people working from home will have a profound impact on the way we live and work. The traditional commute will be phased out, as a hybrid model of some or no office based work becomes the norm. All this time spent in our homes has made us more aware of our waste as well. It has become easier to monitor ones household consumption, waste and recycling habits.
The Bright Side: 2020 the Catalyst
It has been a truly horrible year for many. Yet it can be seen as a catalyst for the essential endeavour of preventing the climate of our planet from degrading so much that it can no longer support the majority of human life.
2020 has shown that we can work together in the face of existential threats. It has also demonstrated in plain view how effective national initiatives can change individual behaviour. This has been evident to the extent that seemingly insurmountable problems can be dealt with.
It is my hope that government action at the national level combined with an awareness and understanding on the part of national publics will make the 2020s a decade of exponential progress on environmental issues.
